Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 225

   Mesoscale Discussion 0225
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0904 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

   Areas affected...eastern Ohio...much of West Virginia...and western
   Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon 

   Valid 161404Z - 161530Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A tornado watch is needed soon across eastern Ohio,
   western Pennsylvania, and much of West Virginia.

   DISCUSSION...An area of clearing has developed across eastern Ohio,
   West Virginia, and western Pennsylvania this morning. This clearing
   should permit a period of solar insolation which will destabilize
   much of the region by late morning. Minimal inhibition was present
   on the 12Z RAOBs from PIT and ILN. Therefore, only minimal heating
   should be required for a line of storms to develop. A very strong
   wind profile across the region will support organized storms and
   provide ambient synoptic flow which can easily mix damaging winds to
   the surface within any convection. In addition, low-level shear is
   very strong with over 450 m2/s2 0-1km SRH (per PBZ VWP). Damaging
   wind gusts are the primary concern from the fast moving squall line
   which is expected to develop. However, given the strong shear, some
   line-embedded tornadoes will also be possible. 

   Initially, a line of storms will likely develop where some lightning
   has already occurred within a pre-frontal trough feature across
   eastern Ohio and into western West Virginia with an additional line
   of storms expected along the cold front which is currently moving
   through central Ohio and central Kentucky. Eventually expect the
   line of storms along the cold front to become the dominant squall
   line by this afternoon as these storms advance east.

   ..Bentley/Gleason.. 03/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

   LAT...LON   38677985 37628173 37838228 38438220 39688203 41058162
               41758140 41918087 41968051 41957955 41947884 41447877
               41037870 40177889 38957953 38677985