Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 222

   Mesoscale Discussion 0222
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0628 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

   Areas affected...North Florida and southeast Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 161128Z - 161300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A broken band of storms will spread eastward into
   southeast Georgia and north Florida through late morning.  A new
   tornado watch appears likely.

   DISCUSSION...A broken band of storms has persisted overnight from
   south central GA into the eastern FL Panhandle, with
   occasional/embedded supercell structures.  Low-level moistening over
   the next few hours and the onset of diurnal heating will drive
   destabilization across north FL/southeast GA later this morning. 
   Though the low-level jet core will develop northeastward toward the
   Carolinas through the day, low-level flow/shear will remain
   sufficiently strong to support additional supercells through the
   morning across north FL/southeast GA.  The storms will remain
   capable of producing occasional damaging winds and possibly a couple
   of tornadoes, and a new tornado watch will likely be needed from
   12-13z.

   ..Thompson/Smith.. 03/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   31288133 30368164 29908202 29548247 29388309 29388323
               29808337 30538324 31158280 31698236 31748192 31288133