Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 221

   Mesoscale Discussion 0221
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0430 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

   Areas affected...Southeast Georgia to south central North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 160930Z - 161030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The potential for occasional wind damage and a couple of
   tornadoes with embedded circulations will spread east of the current
   watches.  A new tornado watch will likely be needed by 10z from
   southeast Georgia across South Carolina into south central North
   Carolina.

   DISCUSSION...A persistent QLCS continues to move eastward toward
   east central GA and will reach the edge of tornado watch #50 close
   to 10z.  Echo depth and flash rates have decreased some over the
   past hour, which could be a reflection of the storms getting too far
   ahead of the destabilization, and weakening forcing for ascent with
   time.  Still, a 70 kt low-level jet and surface temperatures near 70
   with low-mid 60s dewpoints suggest that some rejuvenation of the
   convection will be possible.  Given the strong vertical shear
   profiles, any persistent storms would pose some threat for damaging
   winds and a couple of tornadoes.  The MD area is being considered
   for a new tornado watch by about 10z.

   ..Thompson/Smith.. 03/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

   LAT...LON   33838146 34598094 35248030 35437979 35367929 35107884
               34707884 33837965 33208030 31878147 32058210 32528204
               33838146