Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 215

   Mesoscale Discussion 0215
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0702 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

   Areas affected...Eastern Alabama into western Georgia and parts of
   the Florida Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 160002Z - 160200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Downstream watch issuance across western Georgia, eastern
   and southeast Alabama, and parts of the Florida Panhandle is
   expected before 01 UTC as severe storms spread east.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics show the most intense/organized
   convection across central AL extending southwestward into far
   southeast MS. Per recent MCD #213, the expectation is that this
   activity will continue to pose a severe wind and tornado risk
   heading into the late evening hours as it spreads east/northeast.
   Recent HRRR-based SSCRAM and WoFS guidance suggest that areas of
   eastern AL will see an uptick in the severe threat by 01-03 UTC with
   western GA and parts of the FL Panhandle between 02-05 UTC. These
   solutions also show a convective environment characterized by STP
   values between 2-4 will spread east with time and will continue to
   support the potential for long-track/significant tornadoes, as well
   as damaging/severe wind gusts (possibly as high as 60-70 mph). Watch
   issuance will likely be needed before 01 UTC to address this
   potential and will replace WW 46.

   ..Moore/Bunting.. 03/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...

   LAT...LON   34088367 33678355 33148359 32438373 31658400 31238418
               30748454 30378489 30108516 29968534 29928558 30028580
               30178592 30238609 30298633 30318658 30278684 30288700
               30308713 30358741 30518757 30798758 31338745 32028710
               32818669 33388641 33878616 34188598 34428558 34508449
               34408400 34088367