Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 215
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Mesoscale Discussion 215 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0215 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Alabama into western Georgia and parts of the Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 160002Z - 160200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Downstream watch issuance across western Georgia, eastern and southeast Alabama, and parts of the Florida Panhandle is expected before 01 UTC as severe storms spread east. DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics show the most intense/organized convection across central AL extending southwestward into far southeast MS. Per recent MCD #213, the expectation is that this activity will continue to pose a severe wind and tornado risk heading into the late evening hours as it spreads east/northeast. Recent HRRR-based SSCRAM and WoFS guidance suggest that areas of eastern AL will see an uptick in the severe threat by 01-03 UTC with western GA and parts of the FL Panhandle between 02-05 UTC. These solutions also show a convective environment characterized by STP values between 2-4 will spread east with time and will continue to support the potential for long-track/significant tornadoes, as well as damaging/severe wind gusts (possibly as high as 60-70 mph). Watch issuance will likely be needed before 01 UTC to address this potential and will replace WW 46. ..Moore/Bunting.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB... LAT...LON 34088367 33678355 33148359 32438373 31658400 31238418 30748454 30378489 30108516 29968534 29928558 30028580 30178592 30238609 30298633 30318658 30278684 30288700 30308713 30358741 30518757 30798758 31338745 32028710 32818669 33388641 33878616 34188598 34428558 34508449 34408400 34088367 |
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2025-03-16 00:21:02