Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 209

   Mesoscale Discussion 0209
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0248 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

   Areas affected...portions of central and northern Indiana into far
   southeast Lower Michigan and western Ohio

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 151948Z - 152115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An instance or two of marginally severe hail/wind or a
   brief tornado are possible into early evening.The severe threat
   should be sparse at best and a WW issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been gradually increasing in
   coverage and intensity within a low-level moisture axis preceding
   the approach of a mid-level trough. Vertical strengthening and
   veering of flow with height supports 40 kts of effective bulk shear.
   KIWX radar shows that some of the more recent, stronger storm
   structures have exhibited multicellular to transient supercellular
   characteristics. However, these storms are progressing in a
   marginally unstable environment, characterized by 500 J/kg MLCAPE.
   As such, one of the stronger storms could produce an instance of
   marginally severe hail/wind/a brief tornado. However, the severe
   threat should remain isolated, and a WW issuance is not currently
   anticipated.

   ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 03/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...ILX...

   LAT...LON   39438766 41008646 42358526 42818360 42638322 42248321
               41808337 41068290 40438305 39708345 39438427 39548566
               39438766