Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 208

   Mesoscale Discussion 0208
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0215 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

   Areas affected...portions of middle Tennessee

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 47...

   Valid 151915Z - 152045Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 47 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 47. A few
   damaging gusts or QLCS tornadoes remain possible.

   DISCUSSION...A QLCS continues to progress eastward across Middle TN
   amid afternoon peak heating. Surface temperatures have warmed to
   over 70 F downstream of the QLCS, supporting MUCAPE approaching 500
   J/kg. Though the HTX VAD shows a large, curved hodograph,
   boundary-layer buoyancy remains scant (as demonstrated by neutral to
   stable lapse-rates in the 18Z BNA observed sounding). As such, it is
   unclear how much of the ambient environmental SRH is effective (i.e.
   can be ingested into the leading-line updrafts). At least a threat
   for damaging gusts should persist with the progression of this line,
   though a few tornadoes remain possible given such strong low-level
   shear.

   ..Squitieri.. 03/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   35058759 35848718 36428668 36578568 36428494 36088470
               35778491 35398543 35188571 35028616 35058759