Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 203

   Mesoscale Discussion 0203
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

   Areas affected...portions of middle Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 151730Z - 151830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase through the afternoon.
   Damaging gusts and at least a few tornadoes will be the main
   concerns. A Tornado Watch will be needed soon.

   DISCUSSION...A QLCS is gradually progressing toward Middle TN from
   the west as semi-discrete storms attempt to approach from northeast
   MS. At the same time, low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints continue to
   advect northward, supporting gradual destabilization. MLCAPE may
   exceed 500 J/kg, and when considering the strong low-level shear in
   place (e.g. large, clockwise-curved hodographs with 500+ m2/s2
   effective SRH per recent HTX and OHX VADs), QLCS circulations may
   develop and support a tornado threat. Any preceding supercells that
   can advance into middle TN in the aforementioned shear environment
   will have the best chance at producing tornadoes. Furthermore,
   severe wind gusts may also accompany the approaching QLCS. As such,
   a Tornado Watch will be needed soon.

   ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 03/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   35068793 35948755 36518597 36418487 36058441 35578447
               35268482 35098537 35028642 35068793