Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 202

   Mesoscale Discussion 0202
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1153 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

   Areas affected...parts of southern Louisiana into south and
   east-central Mississippi

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 45...

   Valid 151653Z - 151830Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 45 continues.

   SUMMARY...The greatest threat for long-track intense to violent
   tornadoes through mid-afternoon is across portions of southern into
   east-central Mississippi.

   DISCUSSION...A line of supercells is developing within a confluence
   band across eastern Louisiana and south-central Mississippi.
   Temperatures are expected to warm into the 80s ahead of these
   supercells within the next 1 to 2 hours which should aid the
   maturity of multiple supercells out of this confluence band. SPC
   Mesoanalysis shows STP values across the area are already 4 to 6 and
   these values are expected to increase through the afternoon as shear
   and instability increase further. As these supercells mature into
   peak heating, they will pose a threat for long-track intense to
   violent tornadoes.

   Of particular interest are 2 consolidating supercells entering St.
   Helena Parish in eastern Louisiana and Lincoln County in
   Mississippi. These storms already have echo tops over 50kft and are
   near the greatest instability. The 16Z LIX RAOB acts as a proximity
   sounding to these storms with MLCAPE over 2200 J/kg and a STP of 6.
   In addition, temperatures have warmed a few degrees since it was
   launched. These storms, with broken cloudcover and instability
   downstream in a volatile kinematic environment, have the greatest
   potential to realize this environment over the next 1 to 3 hours.

   ..Bentley.. 03/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30489109 30749101 31449069 32049046 32819010 33088977
               33388871 33018834 32378845 31818849 31288858 30838917
               30529025 30489109