Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 201
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Mesoscale Discussion 201 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0201 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...northern Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 45... Valid 151620Z - 151745Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 45 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to intense tornadoes are likely through mid-afternoon across northern Mississippi. DISCUSSION...Several mature, embedded supercells are starting to emerge out of the larger area of precipitation across northwest Mississippi with additional development possible from showers evident on radar across northeast Mississippi. One of these supercells, in Humphreys County, has had a persistent very strong mid-level mesocyclone and tops over 50kft. In addition, structural damage has been reported from this storm indicating the potential for a tornado. This supercell and any other mature supercells which develop are expected to persist east across the state through the early-to-mid afternoon. 0-1km SRH from the GWX VWP is around 350 m2/s2 and increasing. The instability is not as great across northern Mississippi where extensive cloud cover has muted daytime heating somewhat. However, there is still ample instability for maintenance of ongoing supercells. The combination of instability and shear has yielded STP values of 2 to 3 which should increase through the early afternoon as both shear and instability increase. The 15Z WoFs shows several moderate low-level rotation tracks across the northern part of the state over the next several hours which supports expectations based on the aforementioned observational data. Therefore, several strong to intense tornadoes are likely over the next 2 to 3 hours across northern Mississippi within PDS Tornado Watch 45. ..Bentley.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 32759097 33689042 34588951 34788871 34708831 33618834 33048886 32669037 32759097 |
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2025-03-15 16:34:02