Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 195
1 min read
|
![]() |
Mesoscale Discussion 195 | |
< Previous MD Next MD > | |
![]() |
|
Mesoscale Discussion 0195 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0719 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...portions of northeastern Kentucky...southern and central Ohio...and extreme western West Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 151219Z - 151345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few instances of severe hail or damaging gusts may continue for a few more hours. The overall severe threat appears isolated and a downstream WW issuance is not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms with a history of severe hail and damaging gusts (some of which have exceeded severe limits) continues to progress eastward as a stacked cyclone over the Great Lakes continues to track toward Ontario. This line of storms (especially the southern portion) continues to effectively transport stronger flow aloft to the surface, with 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates likely supporting continuing severe hail production. However, this line of storms is approaching the eastern bounds of what is already scant buoyancy (characterized by 200 J/kg MUCAPE per the 12Z ILN observed sounding), and this line should gradually outpace this marginal instability with time. As such, the severe threat should generally remain limited, though a focused severe threat may continue with the more robust storms (southern portion of the line in KY) for at least a few more hours. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK... LAT...LON 38308507 38478495 38768472 38988435 39538348 40688308 41158225 40868130 40378101 39848099 39218124 38728176 38348260 38208308 38178389 38308507 |
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home |
2025-03-15 13:24:02