Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 194
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Mesoscale Discussion 194 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0194 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...Northwest Louisiana into the Ark-La-Miss Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 150949Z - 151115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe thunderstorm/tornado threat will increase this morning as storm spread east-northeastward from Texas, and new storms developing along the instability gradient from northwest LA into the Ark-La-Miss. A new tornado watch is likely before 11z. DISCUSSION...In response to forcing for ascent in the exit region of a 100-120 kt upper jet streak, thunderstorms are ongoing in the instability gradient across east central and southeast TX. As the ascent spreads east-northeastward through sunrise, additional thunderstorm development is likely from northwest LA into the Ark-La-Miss. Continued northward moisture transport across LA and a gradual increase in low-level flow/shear (in response to weak cyclogenesis) will contribute to a more favorable supercell/tornado environment through the morning. Thus, a new tornado watch will likely be needed before 11z. ..Thompson/Smith.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 34738915 33408971 31619139 31199215 31049303 31089347 31489369 32049398 32439401 33029352 33459297 34219197 34759099 35179002 35188937 34738915 |
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2025-03-15 09:50:03