Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 194

   Mesoscale Discussion 0194
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0449 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

   Areas affected...Northwest Louisiana into the Ark-La-Miss

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 150949Z - 151115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe thunderstorm/tornado threat will increase this
   morning as storm spread east-northeastward from Texas, and new
   storms developing along the instability gradient from northwest LA
   into the Ark-La-Miss.  A new tornado watch is likely before 11z.

   DISCUSSION...In response to forcing for ascent in the exit region of
   a 100-120 kt upper jet streak, thunderstorms are ongoing in the
   instability gradient across east central and southeast TX.  As the
   ascent spreads east-northeastward through sunrise, additional
   thunderstorm development is likely from northwest LA into the
   Ark-La-Miss.  Continued northward moisture transport across LA and a
   gradual increase in low-level flow/shear (in response to weak
   cyclogenesis) will contribute to a more favorable supercell/tornado
   environment through the morning.  Thus, a new tornado watch will
   likely be needed before 11z.

   ..Thompson/Smith.. 03/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   34738915 33408971 31619139 31199215 31049303 31089347
               31489369 32049398 32439401 33029352 33459297 34219197
               34759099 35179002 35188937 34738915