Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 193

   Mesoscale Discussion 0193
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0232 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of southeast and east central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 150732Z - 150830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will likely increase in coverage/intensity
   the next few hours, with an increasing threat for large hail and
   wind damage.  A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed by 08z.

   DISCUSSION...The leading edge of ascent in the left-exit region of
   an upper jet streak is impinging on a slow-moving cold front and the
   northwest edge of the richer low-level moisture across southeast TX.
   Steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear will favor
   organized/supercell storms as convection increases through the early
   morning, with large hail and damaging gusts the primary threats.  A
   new severe thunderstorm watch is likely in the next hour.

   ..Thompson/Smith.. 03/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   31179363 30469451 30069645 30349678 30829680 31349603
               32159465 32039401 31179363