Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 183
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Mesoscale Discussion 183 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0183 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0930 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Areas affected...South-central Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 150230Z - 150430Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Supercell development across south-central Arkansas appears probable in the coming hours as a dryline shifts east. Watch issuance will likely be needed in this region to address this threat. DISCUSSION...KLZK and GOES IR imagery show thunderstorm development southward along a dryline from the Hot Spring, AR region southward towards Texarkana. 02 UTC upper air analyses suggest that low to mid-level winds are not quite as strong compared to northern AR; however, a strengthening low-level jet sampled by KLZK and KSHV VWPs is supporting 0-1 km SRH on the order of 200-300 m2/s2. Improving low-level kinematics combined with slightly better surface moisture/MLCAPE is yielding STP values on the order of 2-4, which implies a robust tornado environment is in place downstream of the developing convection. Discrete to semi-discrete supercells migrating into this air mass may be capable of very large hail (1.5 to 2.0 inches in diameter) and potentially significant (EF-2+) tornadoes. Watch issuance will likely be needed in the near term to address this potential. ..Moore/Mosier.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 33439383 33849363 34489329 34599284 34519185 34259154 33989151 33689166 33419182 33199205 33089230 33049260 33049302 33069338 33109362 33179377 33439383 |
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2025-03-15 02:40:03