Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 176

   Mesoscale Discussion 0176
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0739 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

   Areas affected...Eastern Texas into the Texarkana region

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 150039Z - 150245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along the dryline across eastern
   TX may pose a severe risk through the next several hours. Storm
   coverage and intensity are uncertain based on recent convective
   trends, but conditions will be monitored for possible watch
   issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Attempts at convective initiation have been underway
   for the past hour or so along a dryline across eastern TX into the
   Texarkana region. A few thunderstorms have managed to develop across
   east central TX and are showing signs of slow intensification per IR
   and lightning trends. IR imagery along the remainder of the dryline
   shows little in the way of imminent convective development; however,
   latest guidance continues to hint that additional development is
   possible as the dryline gradually drifts east into an moistening air
   mass as the primary surface low across KS lifts to the northeast.
   The convective environment downstream across eastern TX into
   southwest AR/northwest LA (characterized by MLCAPE upwards of
   1500-2000 J/kg and 45-55 knots of effective shear) suggests that
   robust supercells are possible if cells can sufficiently intensify
   to become self-sufficient and mature within the favorable air mass.
   Large hail will likely be the primary threat given very favorable
   deep-layer shear and mid-level lapse rates, though a tornado threat
   may emerge given 50-150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. Convective trends will
   continue to be monitored for the need for watch issuance if a
   sufficiently widespread severe threat materializes.

   ..Moore/Mosier.. 03/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   30899533 30549620 30489656 30649673 30859670 31089644
               31699564 32509495 33219452 33659417 33889382 33949338
               33809303 33449284 32959298 32459333 31969371 31569412
               31199466 30899533