Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 166

   Mesoscale Discussion 0166
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0759 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of northern MS into northern/central AL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 131259Z - 131430Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail and strong gusts are possible this morning.

   DISCUSSION...Elevated storms have gradually increased this morning
   near and in advance of a compact midlevel low centered near Memphis.
   The 12Z JAN and BMX soundings depicted steep midlevel lapse rates
   and cold temperatures aloft (near -20C at 500 mb), which will
   support potential for localized strong storms through the morning,
   despite generally modest effective shear across the region. Storms
   may increase in coverage as moistening continues near the base of
   the EML. This convection is currently expected to remain rather
   disorganized, but isolated hail and perhaps localized
   strong/damaging gusts may become possible with time this morning.

   ..Dean/Smith.. 03/13/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   32788694 32998796 33098837 33188901 33328944 33988951
               34788922 34648768 34478707 34238632 34008592 33438580
               32958621 32848644 32788694