Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 158

   Mesoscale Discussion 0158
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0159 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025

   Areas affected...parts of southern MS/AL into the FL Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 090759Z - 091030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms remain possible overnight.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered storms are ongoing early this morning from
   southern MS/AL into the FL Panhandle, within a modest low-level warm
   advection regime, and immediately in advance of a low-amplitude
   midlevel shortwave trough moving across the lower MS Valley. This
   convection is generally focused north of a front extending from
   coastal southeast LA to just offshore of southern MS/AL and the FL
   Panhandle. The richest low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the low
   70s F) is confined to areas near/south of this front, with mid 60s F
   dewpoints extending inland immediately north of the front. 

   Ongoing convection is likely somewhat elevated, but MUCAPE of
   500-1000 J/kg and strong effective shear are providing a favorable
   environment for at least transient storm organization. The strongest
   cells overnight will be capable of producing small to marginally
   severe hail, especially across western portions of the MCD area
   where somewhat stronger instability is in place. Guidance suggests
   some increase in low-level flow (which is currently rather weak) is
   possible later this morning, which could aid in the development of
   localized strong/damaging gusts with time.

   ..Dean/Smith.. 03/09/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...

   LAT...LON   29888882 30428887 30708894 30948884 31198830 31068630
               30818500 30598422 30478372 30128342 29708339 29548357
               29458417 29458486 29728574 29888638 29868705 29848784
               29888839 29888882