Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 151

   Mesoscale Discussion 0151
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0119 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025

   Areas affected...Northeastern West Virginia...northern
   Virginia...western Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 051919Z - 052115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind and hail threat may increase with
   thunderstorm development this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating along a secondary cold frontal boundary
   located across West Virginia into western Pennsylvania has allowed
   for convective development over the last 30-60 minutes. Temperatures
   have warmed into the 60s ahead of this boundary, yielding around 500
   J/kg of SBCAPE to develop. Looking at the mid-levels, a 500 mb
   90-100 kt jet continues to move northward across the area,
   supporting 0-6 km shear around 90-100 kts. CAM guidance suggests
   further development is possible along the boundary through the
   afternoon. Given strong shear profiles, some loosely organized cells
   may pose a risk for damaging wind and hail. Convective trends will
   be monitored over the next couple of hours for potential watch
   issuance.

   ..Thornton/Mosier.. 03/05/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

   LAT...LON   39938027 40838032 41578055 41928038 42037992 41967936
               41587829 41187804 40667792 40227778 39567774 39047784
               38577812 38147854 37937878 38127951 38578025 39368046
               39938027