Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 116

   Mesoscale Discussion 0116
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0601 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025

   Areas affected...Northeastern Arkansas...Southeastern
   Missouri...Western Tennessee...Western Kentucky...Southern Illinois

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 190001Z - 190300Z

   SUMMARY...Snowfall rates will gradually increase across portions of
   western Kentucky and western Tennessee through the evening. Rates
   will decrease through time, though some moderate to heavy snowfall
   rates up to 1"/hr will be possible in heavier bands.

   DISCUSSION...Radar analysis shows the gradual shift of snowfall into
   portions of western Kentucky and Tennessee this evening. Moderate to
   heavy snowfall is ongoing across southeastern Missouri into southern
   Illinois, where a persistent heavy band extends, driven by 700-850
   mb frontogenesis and isentropic ascent. This enhancement will
   gradually shift eastward through time, with potential for a few
   heavier bands with occasional 1"/hr rates. HREF ensemble guidance
   shows a down trend in rates overall through the evening, with a
   transition to mostly light snow for portions of western Tennessee.
   Confidence is highest in potential for better rates across
   northwestern Kentucky into southern Illinois.

   ..Thornton.. 02/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...

   LAT...LON   36199081 37389042 37878993 38068914 37978804 37858767
               37538701 37378687 36828672 36458661 35628715 35118774
               35078876 35158957 35399041 35479063 35929094 36109086
               36199081