Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 114

   Mesoscale Discussion 0114
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1220 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025

   Areas affected...portions of southeastern KS...far northeastern OK
   and the Ozark Plateau

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 181820Z - 182345Z

   SUMMARY...Snowfall rates are expected to increase across portions of
   eastern KS and the Ozarks over the next few hours. Rates of 1-1.5
   in/hr are expected within the heavier banding.

   DISCUSSION...As of 1820 UTC, regional radar and surface observations
   showed a broad area of winter precipitation ongoing over the Plains
   and beginning to shift eastward toward the Ozark Plateau. A
   pronounced band of heavier snow has slowly coalesced over the last
   couple of hours across portions of southeastern KS and northeastern
   OK. Likely supported by 850-700 mb frontogenesis and isentropic
   ascent, heavy snow with rates over 1" per hour have been observed.
   As ascent from the upstream shortwave trough continues to intensify,
   so to should the snow band as it gradually shifts eastward into
   parts of MO and northern AR.

   Hi-res model guidance and area RAP soundings generally agree with
   observational trends and suggest strengthening of the band is likely
   over the next several hours. Very cold low-level temperatures (teens
   to single digits) will support efficient dendrite generation with
   snow to liquid ratios in excess of 15:1. Confidence is highest that
   the heavier rates will occur generally along and south of I-44
   across parts of northern AR and southern MO through this evening.

   ..Lyons.. 02/18/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38309384 38089168 37839048 37408956 37318946 36628951
               36489018 36119161 36009271 36159440 36839512 37789510
               38199456 38309384