SPC MD 96
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MD 0096 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE SACRAMENTO AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0096 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Areas affected...The Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys in central California Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 132046Z - 132245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic thunderstorms are expected to develop through the afternoon hours within the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys in central California. Stronger/deeper storms will be capable of isolated severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado given sufficient low-level wind shear. DISCUSSION...Isolated deep convection has been gradually developing within the southern Sacramento/northern San Joaquin Valley over the past hour or so. These storms have developed within a small pocket where cloud breaks have allowed surface temperatures to warm into the upper 50s and low 60s, which are required to support deep, surface-based convection. Overall, poor mid-level lapse rates are limiting (and will continue to limit) buoyancy with maximum MUCAPE values of around 250-500 J/kg noted in recent mesoanalysis estimates. However, strong deep-layer wind shear (effective bulk shear of around 40-45 knots) is in place across the region as a mid-level jet associated with an approaching upper wave overspreads the region. Additionally, backed low-level flow within the valley is supporting 0-1 km SRH values on the order of about 100 m2/s2. As a result, organization of deeper, longer lived cells appears possible with an attendant threat of severe winds and perhaps a brief tornado (small hail is also possible, but the limited buoyancy and duration of individual cells casts uncertainty on the severe hail potential). This threat will likely be confined to the valleys and is expected to be too sporadic/isolated to warrant watch issuance. ..Moore/Thompson.. 02/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HNX...STO...MTR... LAT...LON 36402012 36322034 36302060 36462090 36762115 37322139 37972161 38772186 39132192 39352182 39442168 39542152 39542122 39392111 38672074 38092038 37612006 37321985 37021975 36751975 36511997 36402012
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2025-02-13 20:55:03