Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 70

   Mesoscale Discussion 0070
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0121 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025

   Areas affected...Portions of western/central Tennessee and vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 061921Z - 062145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
   intensity across Tennessee this afternoon and evening along and
   ahead of a cold front.  Convective trends will continue to be
   monitored for the possibility of a watch.

   DISCUSSION...While synoptic forcing is limited across the area, some
   vertical ascent is apparent in visible imagery across southeastern
   Missouri, leading to multiple instances of convective initiation. 
   Deep-layer shear (around 50 knots per mesoanalysis) is sufficient to
   support organized storm modes, including supercells.  Long, straight
   hodographs will also be supportive of storm splits, as evidenced by
   the initial storm evolution in northwestern Tennessee.  The limiting
   factor to a more robust severe threat is the marginal instability
   (currently around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE).  Low-level clouds have been
   persistent across much of western/central Tennessee slowing
   destabilization across the area.  Nevertheless, with some additional
   clearing/heating, storms are expected to increase in coverage and
   intensity, especially over northern-middle Tennessee later this
   afternoon and evening, posing an all-hazards severe weather risk.
   Convective trends will be monitored for the possibility of a watch.

   ..Jirak/Hart.. 02/06/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   36188936 36698938 36948914 36828849 36748776 36698733
               36658659 36808372 36158369 35438528 35248595 35148693
               35248803 35318879 35508932 36188936