Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 45

   Mesoscale Discussion 0045
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1030 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

   Areas affected...portions of far western New York

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 210430Z - 211030Z

   SUMMARY...At least 2-3 inch/hour snowfall rates should continue past
   sunrise with an intense lake-effect snow band.

   DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic and KTYX radar imagery show an intense,
   steady-state lake-effect snow band persisting across Jefferson and
   Lewis Counties in far western NY. This snow-band is benefiting from
   an optimal fetch of moisture off of Lake Ontario, where 8+ C/km 0-3
   km lapse rates are in place. As such, convective snowfall within
   this lake-effect band should persist past sunrise, as shown by the
   latest high-resolution guidance consensus. Furthermore, given the
   convective nature of the band, and degree of saturation in the
   dendritic growth zone, snowfall rates at least in the 2-3 inch/hour
   range are expected through the remainder of tonight.

   ..Squitieri.. 01/21/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BUF...

   LAT...LON   43977634 44027567 43947519 43697514 43547540 43587581
               43617612 43647630 43977634