Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 43

   Mesoscale Discussion 0043
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1000 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

   Areas affected...portions of south into southeast and eastern Texas

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 210400Z - 210800Z

   SUMMARY...Wintry precipitation rates should increase through tonight
   across southeastern portions of Texas, with sleet and freezing rain
   accumulations likely to continue.

   DISCUSSION...700 mb WAA continues to increase atop a sub-freezing
   airmass over southeastern TX as a positively tilted mid-level trough
   glances the region to the north. Meanwhile, the dry low-levels
   support wet-bulb temperatures well below freezing given ample
   evaporative cooling/sublimation potential. Over the next couple of
   hours, continued cooling of the surface-850 mb layer, due to both
   925 mb CAA and evaporative cooling, should support an increased
   potential for wintry precipitation (as evident based on recent
   reports of ice accretion and sleet accumulations).

   The greatest near-term potential for freezing rain/ice accretion
   will be along a zone roughly from Wilson to Tyler Counties, where
   surface observations show surface temperatures already cooled below
   32 F. Latest high-resolution guidance shows sleet/freezing rates
   peaking sometime after 06Z, including over portions of deep-south
   TX. With time, at least moderate snowfall rates may eventually be
   observed closer to the southeast TX coastline.

   ..Squitieri.. 01/21/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   28789686 27639811 27479862 28629842 29729812 30359727
               30899592 31199473 31259398 30999377 30489386 29879437
               29819506 28789686