Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 21

   Mesoscale Discussion 0021
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0917 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025

   Areas affected...southern GA into far northern FL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 061517Z - 061645Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated low-topped convection may pose a risk for a
   strong wind gust or brief tornado through early afternoon. Overall
   risk is expected to remain low, and a watch is not currently
   expected.

   DISCUSSION...Low-topped convection is currently ongoing across
   southern GA into north FL. Recently, occasional cyclonic shear has
   been noted with cells over southern GA. The VWP from KVAX shows
   enlarged and favorably curved low-level hodographs, supported by 1-2
   km flow around 50-60 kt. Instability remains a limiting factor, with
   regional 12z RAOBs showing poor lapse rates. Additionally,
   boundary-layer moisture is rather unimpressive, with dewpoints
   generally in the upper 50s to low 60s F. Nevertheless, even weak
   low-level instability could be sufficient in this high shear
   environment to allow for a sporadic strong gust or perhaps a brief
   tornado. Overall severe potential is expected to remain
   limited/conditional through the afternoon.

   ..Leitman/Smith.. 01/06/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   31458385 31378228 30928192 30478202 30338247 30278308
               30388370 30638396 30928406 31138407 31458385