Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 18

   Mesoscale Discussion 0018
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1123 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025

   Areas affected...parts of the Florida Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 060523Z - 060800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong storms, perhaps isolated severe, may affect parts
   of the Florida Panhandle early tonight. A brief tornado cannot be
   ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...Southerly low-level winds persist well ahead of the
   cold front which now extends from central AL into southeast LA.
   Surface temperatures and dewpoints are stable or slowly rising along
   the Gulf Coast, with offshore observations indicating a theta-e
   plume nosing toward the area.

   A north-south line of thunderstorms has developed offshore along the
   eastern periphery of the instability plume, with northern cells
   likely to affect the coast soon. Shear profiles favor supercells,
   and waterspouts or brief tornadoes may occur. A watch is not
   anticipated at this time due to the limited coastal area most likely
   to be affected. However, surface observations and storm trends will
   need to be monitored over the next several hours for possible
   small-scale tornado risk area as shear profiles remain impressively
   strong.

   ..Jewell/Kerr.. 01/06/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30348694 30498691 30718684 30928647 30768576 30488529
               30028500 29678505 29628536 29968561 30218607 30328663
               30348694