Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 4

   Mesoscale Discussion 0004
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0240 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025

   Areas affected...east-central Kansas...much of central
   Missouri...southern Illinois...and far western Kentucky.

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 050840Z - 051345Z

   SUMMARY...An expansive region of mostly freezing rain with some
   embedded thunderstorms will persist through the remainder of the
   overnight period.

   DISCUSSION...Freezing rain and isolated sleet is being observed
   early this morning across a broad region from south-central Kansas
   to western Illinois and far western Kentucky. A broad region of
   isentropic ascent will support continued precipitation development
   along the frontal zone through the early morning hours. In addition,
   low-level cold air will continue to advect into the region with an
   area of arctic high pressure extending from the northern Plains to
   the Lower Ohio Valley.

   Temperatures are currently above freezing across southeast Missouri
   and into western Kentucky. However, wet-bulb cooling should result
   in below freezing temperatures shortly after precipitation begins. 

   Widespread lightning has been observed with the freezing rain
   activity across central/eastern Kansas over the last 1 to 2 hours. 
   Forecast soundings show elevated instability which should continue
   to support the threat for thunderstorms through the early morning
   hours across eastern Kansas and into Missouri. These heavier
   precipitation cores may not be that efficient at ice accretion where
   temperatures are in the upper 20s to low 30s. However, where
   temperatures are in the mid 20s or colder, these heavier
   precipitation rates could result in substantial freezing rain
   accretion in a very short period.

   ..Bentley.. 01/05/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37389685 37429731 37569759 37919757 38239713 38399651
               38629522 38659105 38648996 38348878 37538768 36798709
               36298712 36899163 37289338 37619566 37409657 37389685