Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2

   Mesoscale Discussion 0002
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0838 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025

   Areas affected...south-central Kansas into far western Missouri

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 050238Z - 050845Z

   SUMMARY...Areas of light freezing rain may intensify later this
   evening, spreading out of south-central Kansas into far western
   Missouri. Small hail may also occur from far northern Oklahoma into
   southern Kansas.

   DISCUSSION...Light freezing drizzle/rain persists this evening over
   south-central KS north of the warm front over northern OK. VWPs
   indicate increasing southwest flow just above the stable/cold
   boundary layer, which will result in increasing moisture advection
   and lift atop the cold air mass.

   Indications are that heavier convective elements/elevated
   thunderstorms may form over far northern OK into southern KS between
   03-06Z. As this activity expands northeast and north of the freezing
   line, moderate to heavy bursts of freezing rain may occur. Forecast
   soundings indicate several hundred J/kg MUCAPE will develop by 06Z,
   and very small hail cannot be ruled out.

   ..Jewell.. 01/05/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37939408 37899458 37839508 37749580 37689647 37599709
               37539764 37499813 37579841 37899841 38419798 38689652
               38829442 38659376 38389367 38119374 37939408