Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 12

   Mesoscale Discussion 0012
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0109 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Louisiana into Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 051909Z - 052045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase through the
   afternoon across eastern Louisiana into Mississippi. Damaging wind
   gusts and a few tornadoes are possible into this evening.

   DISCUSSION...The warm sector is continuing to expand north and east
   across the Lower Mississippi Valley early this afternoon. Mid-60s F
   surface dewpoints are now evident across southwest MS, and as far
   north as far southwest AR, with cloud breaks evident in visible
   satellite imagery. Some continued moistening is expected with north
   and east extent into late afternoon/evening ahead of the
   eastward-advancing cold front. 

   The VWP at KDGX shows increasing low to midlevel flow overspreading
   the region with the arrival of better low-level moisture. Enlarged,
   looping low-level hodographs amid 0-1 km SRH greater than 200 m2/s2
   suggest rotating storms (both with discrete convection and embedded
   within the QLCS) will pose a risk for tornadoes and damaging gusts.
   Of particular interest, an area from northeast LA into southwest and
   west-central MS shows overlaps between backed low-level flow, cloud
   breaks/stronger heating, mid-60s F dewpoints and stronger 2-hr
   pressure falls. This area could become a corridor of enhanced
   severe/tornado potential later this afternoon/early evening. 

   While the northward extent of this potential is a bit uncertain and
   conditional on the northward progression of the warm sector, at
   least some severe potential is expected to extend into portions of
   northern MS. A tornado watch will likely be issued in the next hour
   or so for portions of the MCD area.

   ..Leitman/Smith.. 01/05/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32459182 34209111 34399091 34439038 34368987 34048925
               33578910 32688929 31408996 30659080 30369148 30359221
               30479264 31089237 32459182