Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 10

   Mesoscale Discussion 0010
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1058 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025

   Areas affected...Portions of southern IN...central/eastern KY...far
   southwest WV...and far western VA

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 051658Z - 052130Z

   SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow, with 1-1.5 in/hr rates, will
   gradually transition to sleet and freezing rain through the
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Latest mosaic radar data depicts an expansive swath of
   moderate to heavy snow shifting/expanding north-northeastward across
   the OH River Valley this afternoon -- generally focused within the
   warm-advection wing of a deepening low-level cyclone shifting
   eastward over the Ozarks. The 12Z ILN sounding showed a cold air
   mass entrenched across the region, with an antecedent layer of dry
   air from the surface to near 700 mb. While this dry layer will limit
   precipitation intensity/rates with northward extent in the
   near-term, forecast soundings show moistening from south to north --
   aided by strengthening frontogenetic forcing for ascent. As a
   result, areas of heavy snow with 1-1.5 in/hr rates are expected
   through at least 19Z. 

   At that time, the low-level warm advection plume -- evident in
   regional VWP data over TN -- will expand northward and strengthen
   across KY. The associated warm nose will support a gradual
   south-to-north transition from moderate/heavy snow to sleet and
   eventually freezing rain. The strong/focused ascent and deep
   cold/saturated air mass will continue to favor moderate to heavy
   mixed precipitation rates.

   ..Weinman.. 01/05/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

   LAT...LON   37878624 38248672 38728646 38958571 38878465 37928196
               37328149 36848192 36788359 36938433 37188479 37878624