Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2323

   Mesoscale Discussion 2323
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0304 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024

   Areas affected...southeastern Virginia into the Delmarva Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 312104Z - 312300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A developing cluster of thunderstorms may continue to pose
   a risk for small hail and perhaps increasing potential for scattered
   surface gusts approaching severe limits through 6-7 PM EST.

   DISCUSSION...Despite rather limited destabilization (including
   mixed-layer CAPE generally on the order of 250 J/kg), forcing for
   ascent, near a weak developing low within surface troughing to the
   lee of the Blue Ridge, has provided support for a developing
   quasi-linear cluster of thunderstorms east-south of the
   Charlottesville and Lynchburg vicinities.  Shear through the
   relatively shallow convective layer is strong and contributing
   convective organization, with sufficient low-level moistening and
   mid-level cooling to provide support for small to perhaps marginally
   severe hail in the stronger updrafts.  

   As activity develops east-northeastward with the forcing for ascent
   during the next few hours, it is possible that modest boundary-layer
   temperature and dew point spreads will contribute to sufficient
   sub-cloud evaporative cooling and melting to support a gradual
   increase in potential for strong surface gusts.  Given ambient mean
   flow in the lowest 3 km or so above ground level on the order of
   35-40 kt, a couple of gusts may approach or briefly exceed severe
   limits.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 12/31/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   37657834 38987668 38817532 37397668 36687753 36917872
               37657834