Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2322

   Mesoscale Discussion 2322
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0135 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024

   Areas affected...parts of southwestern Virginia...eastern West
   Virginia and adjacent portions of Maryland/Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 311935Z - 312130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...At least in the near term, the potential for strong
   surface gusts is expected to diminish with lingering convection
   spreading into and across the Allegheny Mountains toward the Blue
   Ridge through 4-5 PM EDT.

   DISCUSSION...Convectively enhanced surface gusts have increased a
   bit in number and strength along the western slopes of the Allegheny
   Mountains.  This is where low-level lapse rates have become rather
   steep in response to continuing insolation and mid-level cooling. 
   Across the higher terrain into the eastern slopes of the Allegheny
   mountains and Blue Ridge, the boundary-layer remains cooler and more
   stable to both updrafts and downward mixing of momentum.  Although
   this could be modified somewhat by the mid-level cooling, convection
   and potential for strong surface gusts seem likely to diminish
   during the next hour or two as forcing for ascent spreads eastward.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 12/31/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...

   LAT...LON   38278127 39637991 39277902 37678019 36628127 36968245
               38278127