Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2320

   Mesoscale Discussion 2320
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1047 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of north FL

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 725...

   Valid 291647Z - 291815Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 725 continues.

   SUMMARY...Some threat for locally damaging gusts and a brief tornado
   may persist into early afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...The southern portion of a long-lived QLCS is moving
   through north FL late this morning. While this portion of the QLCS
   has not been very intense, modest downstream diurnal
   heating/destabilization (with MLCAPE near/above 500 J/kg) could
   result in some uptick in convective intensity into early afternoon.
   The primary midlevel shortwave trough is lifting away from the
   region this afternoon, but low-level and deep-layer shear will
   remain somewhat favorable for organized convection, and locally
   damaging gusts remain possible if a more-organized cold pool can
   develop. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out, especially near
   the intersection of southward-moving outflow and the more
   north-south oriented portion of the line across northeast FL.

   ..Dean.. 12/29/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   30378209 30558154 30328108 29688104 29318165 29188211
               29168264 29238294 29658259 30378209