Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2319

   Mesoscale Discussion 2319
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0935 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024

   Areas affected...central NC and northeast SC

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 726...

   Valid 291535Z - 291700Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 726
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A threat for damaging wind and a brief tornado or two will
   spread eastward through midday.

   DISCUSSION...A long-lived QLCS has recently produced severe gusts in
   the Charlotte area (51 kt at KCLT and 53 kt at KEQY). Downstream
   instability is very weak to negligible, and lightning activity has
   diminished with the northern portion of the QLCS. However, very
   strong low-level flow (as noted on KCAE and TCLT VWPs prior to
   arrival of the line) and the current organized nature of the QLCS
   will continue to support a damaging-wind threat through the
   remainder of the morning. The strong low-level flow/shear will also
   support some potential for a brief line-embedded tornado. 

   Longevity of the ongoing QLCS remains uncertain, due to the very
   weak instability. However, modest clearing and diurnal heating in
   advance of the QLCS will result in some steepening of low-level
   lapse rates, with a damaging-wind threat potentially spreading into
   northeast SC and a larger portion of central NC into early
   afternoon.

   ..Dean.. 12/29/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   36298076 36438010 36447959 36167896 34637851 33607849
               33137889 33027954 33308027 33968025 35368020 36298076