Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2317

   Mesoscale Discussion 2317
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0654 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024

   Areas affected...the FL Keys and extreme south Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 291254Z - 291500Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A waterspout moving onshore as a tornado is possible
   across parts of the Keys into the far south Florida Peninsula
   through midday.

   DISCUSSION...An MCV has been drifting east in the offshore waters,
   west of the southern Everglades and north of the Lower Keys, this
   morning. The airmass to its south, across the Keys, has maintained
   mid to upper 70s surface temperatures coupled with low 70s dew
   points. The 12Z KEY sounding sampled this air mass well, which is
   characterized by poor mid-level lapse rates but MLCAPE near 1000
   J/kg. While low-level shear within the sounding and BYX VWP data has
   been modest and is expected to remain so, veering of the wind
   profile with height is yielding a favorable environment for
   occasional supercell structures within a regenerative storm cluster.
   As this activity likely drifts closer to land through midday, a
   brief tornado is possible.

   ..Grams/Edwards.. 12/29/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

   LAT...LON   24938214 25198139 25298074 25338028 25168023 24898046
               24588121 24428178 24618236 24938214