Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2295

   Mesoscale Discussion 2295
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0649 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

   Areas affected...eastern LA and southern MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 281249Z - 281445Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A long-duration severe threat may begin this morning near
   and east of the Mississippi River in Louisiana/Mississippi. This
   threat should remain lower-end and isolated for several hours before
   greater intensity/coverage occurs this afternoon. While a tornado
   watch will undoubtedly be needed later today, confidence is low on
   needing one through mid-morning.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed across parts of
   LA into southwest MS. Regenerative development may persist for many
   hours in the southeast LA/southwest MS corridor where low-level warm
   theta-e advection continues in the wake of long-lived,
   quasistationary convection over the north-central Gulf. 12Z JAN/LCH
   observed soundings sampled relatively modest low-level hodograph
   curvature but favorable effective bulk shear for occasional updraft
   rotation. This could yield an isolated threat for all hazards this
   morning. A more prominent increase in severe potential is expected
   into the afternoon, as low-level shear increases substantially
   midday and beyond.

   ..Grams/Edwards.. 12/28/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   31409191 31829181 32059164 32359117 32439063 32409007
               32078967 31638930 31208930 30898938 30228946 30008975
               29919016 29959070 30149118 30439184 30699205 31409191