Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2289

   Mesoscale Discussion 2289
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0105 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024

   Areas affected...southwest MS vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 270705Z - 270800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Potential for a tornado or two may linger in the southwest
   Mississippi vicinity for a few more hours. This potential is
   expected to remain too conditional/short-lived for a watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Arcing band of convection had largely weakened last
   hour with notable warming in IR cloud tops. Still, the environment
   conditionally supports supercell development through about 09-10Z.
   The potential for a tornado or two will be most prominent along the
   northern edge of the mid 60s surface dewpoint plume, which has its
   apex up the Lower MS Valley. This northern extent of surface-based
   instability is not expected to expand much farther north during the
   pre-dawn hours. In addition, hodograph curvature will gradually
   diminish as strong low-level flow becomes further displaced from the
   lingering convective arc.

   ..Grams/Edwards.. 12/27/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   32729071 32649046 31659033 31319050 31099082 31139130
               31349158 31769134 32589084 32729071