Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2286

   Mesoscale Discussion 2286
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0326 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast Texas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 715...

   Valid 262126Z - 262330Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 715 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across southeast TX as a
   broken line of storms approaches the upper TX Gulf coast and the
   lower Sabine River.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms within a broken convective line continue
   to undulate in intensity with periodic, somewhat well-organized,
   low-level mesocyclones across the TX Coastal Plain. Despite
   relatively transient periods of storm organization/intensity, a
   recent tornado report from the El Campo, TX area indicates that the
   current convective environment is sufficient for at least brief
   tornadoes. The KHGX VWP continues to show slowly strengthening
   low-level winds with 0-1 km SRH oscillating between 150-250 m2/s2,
   and this trend is expected to continue through early evening as the
   surface low to the north continues to deepen. Organized
   precipitation distribution evident in shallow convection in/around
   the Houston metro area confirms a favorable low-level wind
   environment is in place, and is contributing to STP values between
   2-3. As such, the tornado threat is expected to persist well into
   the late afternoon/early evening hours as storms push east towards
   the coast and the lower Sabine River. Recent high-res guidance
   suggests the tornado threat may peak during the 22-02 UTC period to
   the east/northeast of the Houston metro towards the Sabine River
   when the temporal overlap of buoyancy and strong low-level shear
   will be greatest. Watch issuance east of the river may be needed
   later this afternoon/evening based on convective trends over the
   next few hours.

   ..Moore.. 12/26/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...

   LAT...LON   28759664 29479601 30249541 31159506 31469456 31479411
               31349374 31179358 30419370 29949381 29729392 29649410
               29529441 29379470 28839550 28669603 28629635 28639658
               28759664