Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2285

   Mesoscale Discussion 2285
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0114 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

   Areas affected...Southeastern Texas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 715...

   Valid 261914Z - 262115Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 715 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across much of southeast Texas
   as storms intensify across the region.

   DISCUSSION...Storm intensification across southeast TX has been
   gradual over the past several hours with most storms struggling to
   maintain intensity, possibly owing to numerous destructive storm
   interactions/colliding outflows. Despite this, the overall trend has
   been towards more intense updrafts as evidence by colder cloud-top
   temperatures in GOES IR imagery with the stronger pulses.
   Additionally, KHGX velocity data has shown a few weak, but
   persistent, low/mid-level mesocyclones with some of the stronger
   storms. Environmentally, temperatures continue to warm into the
   upper 60s to mid 70s ahead of a broken line of storms (delineating
   the primary surface trough) along the TX coast, and KHGX VWP
   observations have sampled strengthening winds through the 1-3 km
   layer over the past 2 hours with 0-1 km SRH between 150-200 m2/s2.
   Further east into far southeast TX, cooler temperatures are yielding
   less buoyancy compared to areas further southwest along the coast,
   but southeasterly winds are supporting effective SRH on the order of
   200-250 m2/s2 based on latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates. Latest
   high-res guidance suggests that the environment will continue to
   become more favorable for well-organized convection as the surface
   low deepens to the north, and given the aforementioned convective
   trends, further intensification appears probable through late
   afternoon. In the short term, the greatest severe/tornado risk will
   likely be associated with the stronger cells within the line
   approaching the Houston area and in far southeast TX where low-level
   mesocyclones associated with persistent supercells have been noted.

   ..Moore.. 12/26/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...

   LAT...LON   28589690 29309651 30079628 30639623 31109635 31629605
               32079527 32179469 31959401 31439368 31109355 30579357
               30209381 29889413 29309492 28929558 28729601 28569637
               28519655 28479676 28479683 28489691 28589690