Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2283

   Mesoscale Discussion 2283
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1114 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

   Areas affected...northeast Texas into the ArkLaTex vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 261714Z - 261845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will gradually increase into
   the afternoon hours across northeast Texas and the ArkLaTex
   vicinity. Large hail to 1.75 inch diameter and severe gusts to 65
   mph are possible. A severe thunderstorm watch will be issued soon.

   DISCUSSION...A surface low near/just south of the Dallas-Fort Worth
   Metroplex will develop east through this afternoon and evening.
   Surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 50s F across northeast TX into
   the ArkLaTex will increase some in a continued low-level warm
   advection regime ahead of the low. Heating will remain muted by
   low-level cloud cover and ongoing convection. As a result,
   surface-based convection likely will remain sparse, except near the
   southern edge of the MCD where a warm front is expected to exist by
   late afternoon. 

   A mixed mode of scattered, elevated cells and line segments will
   evolve with time into late afternoon/early evening. Steep midlevel
   lapse rates will contribute to modest MUCAPE amid supercell wind
   profiles. This will support isolated large hail up to 1.75 inch
   diameter. While convection is expected to largely remain elevated,
   if and where stronger destabilization occurs, surging line segments
   could produce severe gusts to 65 mph. The tornado risk overall
   should remain limited given the elevated nature of storms. However,
   across the southern MCD area adjacent to southeast TX, a tornado or
   two will be possible if the surface warm front retreats that far
   north by late afternoon/evening.

   ..Leitman/Thompson.. 12/26/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   32089378 31799410 31549549 31549661 31819733 32519706
               33259660 33559602 33789528 33709414 33209368 32439358
               32089378