Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2279

   Mesoscale Discussion 2279
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1102 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

   Areas affected...TX Coastal Plain into Southeast TX

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712...

   Valid 250502Z - 250700Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail remains possible across much of the region.
   Some additional severe potential possible over the Middle Texas
   Coast and another watch may be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Complex convective evolution is underway from the TX
   Hill Country into Southeast TX as thunderstorms along the front
   begin to interact with prefrontal cellular/supercellular
   development. This interaction will likely lead to gradually
   diminishing storm strength across much of the region over the next
   hour or two. Until then, cellular prefrontal development across much
   of the region will likely remain strong to occasionally severe,
   supported by steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer
   vertical shear. 

   The only exception is from Karnes/Dewitt Counties northeastward into
   Fayette County, where the strongest storms are currently ongoing.
   Here, downstream buoyancy may be high enough for storms to maintain
   surface-based character as the frontal interaction occurs, leading
   to upscale growth and a progressive convective line. Increasing
   large-scale ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough
   could contribute to this evolution as well. The resulting convective
   line would likely push southeastward to the Middle TX Coast with an
   attendant threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail. Given this
   potential, a downstream watch may be needed shortly.

   ..Mosier/Gleason.. 12/25/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29089526 28139647 27779736 27889779 29019816 30119763
               31049618 31529462 31199385 30359412 29089526