SPC AC 141953
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2024
Valid 142000Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...20Z Update...
The western edge of thunderstorm probabilities have been trimmed in
the middle MS Valley vicinity, where additional thunderstorm
development appears unlikely behind the strongly forced band of
convection shifting eastward -- in tandem with the midlevel
shortwave trough. Farther west, thunderstorm probabilities were also
removed over portions of the Coastal Range in northern CA. Forecast
soundings suggest EL temperatures/instability are no longer
supportive of lightning here.
For additional details, see the previous discussion below.
..Weinman.. 12/14/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024/
...Coastal California...
The Marginal Risk across parts of coastal CA has been removed with
this update. The 12Z OAK sounding showed a dearth of boundary-layer
instability, and a line of low-topped convection has weakened as it
moves inland in tandem with a shortwave trough also tracking quickly
eastward. While strong winds will remain possible in the short term
given the enhanced low/mid-level flow noted on recent VWPs from
KMUX, the lack of appreciable surface-based instability is expected
to limit the overall severe threat for the rest of the period.
...East/Southeast Texas...
A shortwave trough over the southern/central Plains this morning
will continue to eject eastward across the mid MS Valley through
tonight. Related surface low over eastern KS is forecast to weaken
in this time frame, as high pressure will remain entrenched over the
East Coast. A cold front is expected to stall over parts of east to
central TX later today. While a favorably moist low-level airmass
will be in place ahead of this front, limited large-scale ascent and
poor lapse rates aloft should hinder robust updrafts and organized
severe potential across east/southeast TX.
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