Storm Prediction Center Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 14, 2024

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 142120

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0320 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2024

   Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

   A quasi-zonal, progressive upper-level pattern will be present this
   weekend into the middle of next week. Thereafter, some flow
   amplification is forecast to occur. Upper-level troughing will be
   the general pattern in the East with ridging over portions of the
   West. This pattern will favor cold air east of the Divide with
   seasonably warm temperatures farther west. Some colder air/high
   pressure will filter into the Great Basin and drive offshore winds
   in parts of southern California.

   With the passage of successive upper-level shortwave troughs, some
   dry and breezy conditions are possible in parts of the High Plains.
   Where precipitation remains minimal, locally heightened fire
   concerns could develop next week. Given the cooler temperatures
   expected, critical fire weather probability will remain low.

   Offshore flow in southern California will likely be the main area of
   concern for fire weather. The offshore pressure gradient still
   appears it will be maximized Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
   Deterministic and ensemble guidance has not changed significantly in
   terms of the upper-level and surface pattern over the past several
   model cycles. Upper-level wind support should be minimal. The main
   variation in guidance is with the magnitude of the offshore pressure
   gradient. 40% critical probabilities will remain for
   Tuesday/Wednesday and trends in the offshore gradient will continue
   to be monitored.

   ..Wendt.. 12/14/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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